The National Intelligence Council made up of various intelligence experts that report to the CIA released a report in 2004 called “Mapping the Global Future (PDF)“.

Jonathan S. Landay reported this on January 13, 2005 saying:

“There is a substantial risk that broad Islamic extremist movements akin to al-Qaida will merge with local separatist movements,” it continued. The spread of radical Islam beyond the Middle East will be made possible by global communications.

The report presented one scenario, dubbed “The New Caliphate,” in which an obscure Islamic cleric emerges to lead a worldwide Islamic movement.


If you look at the full report you will see a bizarre “letter” that is supposedly from a descendent of Osama bin Laden acting as the Caliph. It continues to describe this scenario as a rise of a new  “Caliphate”.

Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate

The fictional scenario portrayed below provides an example of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity could emerge. Under this scenario, a new Caliphate is proclaimed and manages to advance a powerful counter ideology that has widespread appeal. It is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Bin Ladin to a family relative in 2020. He recounts the struggles of the Caliph in trying towrest control from traditional regimes and the conflict and confusion which ensue both within the Muslim world and outside between Muslims and the United States, Europe, Russia and China. While the Caliph’s success in mobilizing support varies, places far outside the Muslim core in the Middle East—in Africa and Asia—are convulsed as a result of his appeals.The scenario ends before the Caliph is able to establish both spiritual and temporal authority over a territory—which historically has been the case for previous Caliphates. At the end of the scenario, we identify lessons to be drawn.